Defence After Certainty examines how defence planning assumptions are changing as the strategic order becomes more transactional, conditional and industrially constrained.
The paper assesses five expired assumptions now shaping allied defence planning: time, access, industrial elasticity, supplier visibility and governance visibility. It consolidates prior AXSAS analysis on AUKUS, industrial readiness, supply chain exposure, command architecture and defence governance into a single assessment framework.
Francis Kennedy, AXSAS Pty Ltd
April 2026
PDF, Version 1.0, April 2026
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